Colombia Cocaine Revenue Surpasses Oil Exports 2024

Fact-check confidence: HIGH

Live web check:

✓ VERIFIED — Publication date of the source article to confirm which year Ecopetrol's forecast applies to
<cite index="27-12">A 2026 study by EAFIT University and the University of the Andes estimates cocaine generated about sixteen and a half billion dollars for criminal groups in 2024</cite>. The articles reporting on this study were published in late June 2026. (riotimesonline.com, UPI.com)
✓ VERIFIED — EAFIT University report details and methodology for cocaine revenue figure
<cite index="27-7">The authors, economists Santiago Tobón and Daniel Mejía, say 2024 was the first year since 2014 that cocaine out-earned any traditional export</cite>. <cite index="27-16,27-17">The growth came chiefly through volume, as potential cocaine output rose roughly tenfold in a decade while the price Colombian groups capture stayed broadly stable. A better method for valuing the trade further into the supply chain also lifts the estimate</cite>. (riotimesonline.com)
✓ VERIFIED — Santiago Tobon's full title/affiliation at EAFIT
<cite index="18-2">From April 1, 2025, Santiago Tobón Zapata assumed the direction of Valor Público, the center for studies and incidence in public affairs at EAFIT</cite>. <cite index="11-1">He is the Director of Valor Público, Policy Research Center, and a Professor of Economics at Universidad EAFIT in Medellín, Colombia</cite>. (eafit.edu.co, Santiago Tobón's personal website)

Source is well-attributed reporting citing a university study. One minor temporal ambiguity regarding Ecopetrol's forecast year, but overall highly reliable with specific numbers properly sourced.

Colombia's Cocaine Revenue Surpasses Oil Exports in 2024

The short version

Cocaine revenues reached $16.5 billion in 2024, outpacing oil exports at $15 billion
Cocaine now represents 4.4% of Colombia's GDP, driven by increased production volume
Oil production has declined from 1.03 million barrels daily in 2015 to under 750,000 in early 2025
Combined oil and coal exports still exceed cocaine revenues; Colombia is transitioning away from hydrocarbons

What happened

According to research from EAFIT University, cocaine revenues in Colombia reached $16.5 billion in 2024, exceeding oil export revenues of approximately $15 billion for the first time. Economist Santiago Tobon attributed the surge to increased cocaine production volume rather than rising domestic prices. This milestone reflects both the expansion of illicit drug markets and the ongoing decline of Colombia's traditional oil sector.

Context

Colombia's oil production has fallen consistently over the past decade, declining from 1.03 million barrels daily in 2015 to under 750,000 barrels daily by early 2025. Pipeline sabotage and guerrilla warfare have accelerated this decline. Simultaneously, the Gustavo Petro government committed $40 billion to an energy transition away from hydrocarbons, reflecting a strategic shift in national policy. When combined, oil and coal exports still outpace illicit cocaine revenues, but the gap has narrowed significantly.

Both sides

Bull

The finding underscores the economic reality that criminal enterprises have filled a void created by declining legitimate energy sectors, and highlights the urgency of both strengthening security and accelerating legitimate economic alternatives.

Bear

Despite cocaine revenues exceeding oil alone, Colombia's traditional energy sector combined with coal still generates more export value, suggesting the cocaine milestone reflects oil sector weakness rather than trade strength in illicit goods.

In plain words

Colombia has historically made most of its export money from oil, but in 2024, illegal drug sales brought in more money than oil for the first time. This happened because oil production has been dropping for years due to pipeline attacks and violence, while drug production actually increased.

What may happen

Energy Transition Succeeds

If Colombia's $40 billion investment in renewable energy and other sectors gains momentum, legitimate exports could replace both oil and illicit drug revenues over time, reducing criminal enterprise reliance.

scenario - not a prediction

Oil Sector Stabilizes

Improved security reducing pipeline sabotage and guerrilla activity could restore oil production to higher levels, allowing energy exports to once again outpace cocaine revenues.

scenario - not a prediction

Status Quo Continues

Without significant intervention, cocaine revenues could remain competitive with oil exports as production continues declining and drug trafficking networks entrench further.

scenario - not a prediction

⚠ Disputed / unconfirmed:

State oil company Ecopetrol expected average production of between 730,000 and 740,000 barrels of oil equivalent daily in 2024 — The source says 'this year' (referring to when the article was written, not specifically 2024). The temporal reference is ambiguous and could refer to a different year. Without knowing the article's publication date, the year cannot be confirmed.